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Predictions, Take Them For What They're Worth
March 21, 2008



Want to Know the Future? Good Luck!



As March Madness begins, my bracket is filled, my guesses made, and my reputation staked. Now we'll see what the future holds for all those hopeful young NCAA players, as my choices fall or climb and my bracket sheet tanks or soars.

Nobody knows the future, but we all try to guess. Just like the commodities market writers are doing this morning in the wake of tremendous corrections and a possible turn of investor focus.

I have already read some very interesting comments on the precious metals and other commodity markets this morning and I'm sure more are to follow as the week rounds down. Some analysts are thinking this is a much needed correction, a few are thinking they have seen the peak of the precious metals market and the bull run has passed. At Bloomberg, the word is that gold and oil will continue to drop for the next six or so weeks. Those in other commodity fields have their own opinions, which can very useful in providing us with a broader perspective.

The point is, no matter how much you read, no matter what you know, in a market with so many factors, you will never be able to predict the future, but human nature will never allow you to stop trying and that is a good thing.



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About the Author
Tom Michael has been Krause Publications primary market analyst on more than 80 world and United States coin catalogs produced over the last 20 years. He came to KP in 1987 with a bachelor of arts degree in history, a master of arts degree in economics and a history of coin collecting stretching back to the 1960s. He began collecting world coins as a child by asking friends and relatives to bring coins back from overseas trips, visiting flea markets and having his mother watch for foreign coins in her register at the local grocery store. Today he works with a dedicated base of over 200 contributors to provide accurate market values for the five-volume Standard Catalog of World Coins series, as well as many specialty catalogs, including Coins & Currency of the Middle East and the fifth edition of Unusual World Coins.

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