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Days of Gold and Oil
January 10, 2008



Gold Rush Indicators Positive

Gold ascended to new heights yesterday topping out at $891.30, before profit taking drove the precious metal back to about $870 as of this posting. That drive has given gold it's all time record high, as well as establishing a new benchmark to crack and a new baseline to tow.

Long range predictions are all over the place, but the ones I trust the most indicate that gold may average about $825 through 2008 with peaks that may touch the grand $1000 mark. That's all new ground for the worlds most attractive commodity. The other side of this prediction would be that the dollar will be rebounding somewhat during 2008, with most of it's strength gained in the fall of the year. I am sure politics plays a roll in this thinking and since the basis of this gold boom is, in large part ephemeral, it would seem logical.

Yes, it is true that heavy key factors are in place for a gold rush; crude oil is rising, the dollar is dropping. Still, most U.S. economic measures are not so bad. Unemployment figures have just begun to rise, the housing market has been stalled for about a year, but most other concerns are just that, concerns. For this moment in time, we are all only anticipating based on the dropping dollar, stagnant construction and real estate and our own personal experience, which tells us to be afraid of what is coming.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not discounting all that. I'm just reminding everyone that, when gold ran this route in 1980 it was pushed by real double digit inflation, not just fears of inflation. Being safe is a good idea, but being realistic is more practical.

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About the Author
Tom Michael has been Krause Publications primary market analyst on more than 80 world and United States coin catalogs produced over the last 20 years. He came to KP in 1987 with a bachelor of arts degree in history, a master of arts degree in economics and a history of coin collecting stretching back to the 1960s. He began collecting world coins as a child by asking friends and relatives to bring coins back from overseas trips, visiting flea markets and having his mother watch for foreign coins in her register at the local grocery store. Today he works with a dedicated base of over 200 contributors to provide accurate market values for the five-volume Standard Catalog of World Coins series, as well as many specialty catalogs, including Coins & Currency of the Middle East and the fifth edition of Unusual World Coins.

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