Sellout in the Making
March 31, 2010
The new Boy Scout commemorative silver dollar has been available only since March 23, but already the total sales exceed those of the American Veterans Disabled for Life silver dollars.
As of March 28, the Boy Scouts dollar numbers showed the proof version at 144,732 coins and the uncirculated version at 68,941.
Combining the two numbers gives us 214,673 cons. The maximum possible sales is 350,000.
It sure looks that way.
Looking less and less like a sellout is the Disabled Veterans dollar.
At first glance, sales of these don’t look all that different.
Collectors have purchased 126,421 proofs and 54,631 uncirculated coins.
The combined total is 181,052. The maximum mintage is also 350,000.
The key difference is that the Disabled Veterans dollar has been available since Feb. 25. Time after time it has been shown that collectors act quickly. There is an initial surge of interest and then that is pretty well it for the rest of the program.
Sure sales continue, but the rate of sales falls off dramatically.
The paradox of coin collecting is that numbers matter over time. If the Boy Scout coin sells out and the Vets dollar does not, then if the Vet mintage totals are significantly lower, the long-term value of the coin could then be higher than the equivalent Boy Scout coin.
Will it happen this way? As Yogi Berra said, “It ain’t over, ’til it's over.” That's what makes it so fascinating to watch.
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