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Scary Silver Story?
June 03, 2011

I checked my silver records again this morning. Today is the 24th trading day since the April 29 peak price of $48.58 a troy ounce that coincidentally occurred during the Central States Numismatic Society convention in Chicago.

In 1980, the close on the 24th day after the record high was set was $34.56 a troy ounce. Checking the Kitco site as I write this I see the current price is $35.24. A lot can happen in the next few hours, but I still find it remarkable that there is only a 68-cent difference for days 31 years apart.

On other days in the last few weeks, the gap was even narrower.

I should also note that two days ago, the close on the 22nd trading day after this year’s peak, silver’s price was $37.69 as compared to a price of $31 in 1980. Obviously, there is a price swoon and recovery in the 1980 pattern that has not occurred in 2011.

Mark Twain said history doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes, so we will have to continue to wait until June 21 to see if silver in 2011 resists the complete breakdown it suffered in 1980 by falling under $30 on the 36th day of post-record trading.

In 1980 that breakdown took silver all the way down to $10.80 just 49 days after the high was put in.

Will it happen again?


Or this information could turn out to be just an adult version of the summertime scary camp-out stories that were told at night around the fire when I was a kid.

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Recent Comments
On June 5, 2011 Steve Lorke said
In my mind, one has absolutely nothing to do with the other. Sheer coincidence...

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About the Author
David C. Harper has been a coin collector since 1963. He joined the Krause Publications editorial staff in 1978 and is currently editor of Numismatic News and World Coin News. He also edits two books annually, North American Coins & Prices and Coin Digest. He is the author of the Class of '63 column that runs each week in Numismatic News. His first bylined numismatic article appeared in the June 1971 issue of Coins Magazine and his various Krause Publications assignments included a stint as editor of the magazine 1980-1983. Harper received a bachelor of science degree from the University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh in 1977. He had a double major of journalism and economics.

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