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Steering by Gut Feelings
May 12, 2011



I talked to Indiana coin dealer Julian Jarvis yesterday after silver closed substantially lower.

He said the downswing had caused the investors he deals with to pause. He said the public is still acting pretty much as it had been doing before the price decline.

What will the investors decide as they watch the drama of the markets unfold?

Today it looks like silver is testing the $33 level, which is where the initial phase of the recent declined stopped on an intra-day basis and then bounced up to higher closes Monday and Tuesday.

Doing nothing certainly is one of the three possible choices that they have. It will neither add nor subtract to the floating supply of silver.

A second choice is to jump back into the market and buy more. What price point or what signal would these investors decide is something that convinces them to put additional funds into the market?

The third choice is to for them to sell some or all of what they own.

What could occur to persuade them to part with what they have so consistently built up during the 10-year uptrend?

Now Jarvis does not run with the hedge funds or the exchange traded funds crowd. He deals with middle America and the hard working people who fear for their future.

What his clients do is simply is a reflection of what they are feeling in their gut.

What are they feeling now?



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About the Author
David C. Harper has been a coin collector since 1963. He joined the Krause Publications editorial staff in 1978 and is currently editor of Numismatic News, Bank Note Reporter and World Coin News. He also edits two books annually, North American Coins & Prices and Coin Digest. He is the author of the Class of '63 column that runs each week in Numismatic News. His first bylined numismatic article appeared in the June 1971 issue of Coins Magazine and his various Krause Publications assignments included a stint as editor of the magazine 1980-1983. Harper received a bachelor of science degree from the University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh in 1977. He had a double major of journalism and economics.

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