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UBS Predicts Gold Unsustainable Above $930
July 08, 2008



UBS Predicts Gold Turn In 2008

Amidst plenty of bullist talk about the upside for gold prices, Allen Sheals of UBS spoke out today in Singapore about the possibilities of a bearish market turn. The two main factors driving Sheals comments were a break-up of demand and the forthcoming unloading of European Central Bank stock holds.

Sheals cited indications from the jewelry trade, pending Central bank actions, growing scrap supply, stable mining supply and an end to producer dehedging.

The massive numbers of investor dollars moving into Exchange Traded Funds and gold tied or based funds is also an indicator. Common sense should tell you that if you see a whole lot of people running frantically in one direction, you might be wise to calmly walk the other way.

My advice? Watch the Federal Reserve and Central Banks as they attempt to stem inflation. If they hit on a winning combination, gold and silver may settle down quickly.



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Recent Comments
On July 8, 2008 Alan Walsh said
UBS doesn't want Gold above $930, so the article is self-serving.  If the u.S. Financial system is as badly damaged as I suspect, Gold w8ill look cheap at $930.  The Fed will, of course, do it's best to continue manipulating the metals, but I think they're running out of steam.
On July 8, 2008 Rick Parker said
Won't happen!  Energy costs, destabilization of the Middle East, the federal deficit and the subsequent devaluation of the dollar will continue to drive the market over the long term.  Gold will hit $1,500.00/oz. - maybe as much as $2K/oz.
On July 8, 2008 mickey smith said
I think this writer needs to read up dated data, from people that have 25 yrs of experence in tradeing in PMs! Ted Butler at goldseek.com or silverseek.com might put a kink in your story! The Fed is in a box,as of the I Banks on Wall Street. There is so much more write downs that are poseing huge problems,UBS has it come clean? I Banks leak out what will keep the heat off them,the SLV etf has many problems, when did naked short selling become legal? Read the last 2 years COT reports,you will see a trend that has become very dangerest,to all holders of a paper promise in SLV & Gold ETF's!You might want to visit deepcaster.com & jsmineset.com, the books are not cooked by some Goverment agency!!Also Silver scrap is a all time low, & try to get fast deliverly on Silver products. Also Gold has been slowed by geo political & production cost. Russia & many other Nations are aquireing vast amount of Gold,why? The Dollar is in a very bad way,& the Fed is printing more every minute & America is for sale for pennys on the dollar,& retirement accounts are being wiped out,a flight to Gold & Silver will drive prices higher,then SLV will have to face the pipper or it will all blow up!! Anything else?
On July 11, 2008 Ben Brockett said
Watch the Federal Reserve and Central Banks as they attempt to stem inflation. If they hit on a winning combination, gold and silver may settle down quickly.
ATTEMPT and IF are the key words here.
On July 11, 2008 Kevin Brady-Jones said
with Fanny Mae and Eddie Mae about to get taken for some more of their millions in Mortgages.  I would have to stick w/ the majority.  For the immediate future I have
a tendency to favor the Gold and Silver.

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About the Author
Tom Michael has been Krause Publications primary market analyst on more than 80 world and United States coin catalogs produced over the last 20 years. He came to KP in 1987 with a bachelor of arts degree in history, a master of arts degree in economics and a history of coin collecting stretching back to the 1960s. He began collecting world coins as a child by asking friends and relatives to bring coins back from overseas trips, visiting flea markets and having his mother watch for foreign coins in her register at the local grocery store. Today he works with a dedicated base of over 200 contributors to provide accurate market values for the five-volume Standard Catalog of World Coins series, as well as many specialty catalogs, including Coins & Currency of the Middle East and the fifth edition of Unusual World Coins.

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